Orange County Register: Running for Congress costs a million

Dena Bunis with the Orange County Register wrote an interesting article stating that the chances of defeating an incumbent if you can't raise at least a million dollars.

Dena writes, "The Center for Responsive Politics, which is the best in the business in tracking political money, found that in the 2008 election the odds were 302 to one that someone who spent less than $1 million was able to knock off an incumbent.

In the 2004 House races, not one incumbent was defeated by a challenger who had raised less than $1 million."

As we wrote last week 42nd candidates Rep. Gary Miller and Lee McGroarty filed their fundraising reports with the FEC. Gary Miller raised $58,394 in the 4th quarter of 2009. He spent $18,695 and has $950,191.76 cash on hand. He has a debt of $94.10.

Lee McGroarty raised $1,450 in the 4th quarter of 2009. He spent $7,499.91 and has $1550.09 cash on hand. He has a debt of $14,599.15. McGroarty raised a total of $6,550.00 for 2009.

Phil Liberatore officially formed a committee with the FEC last week, which means he expects to spend or raise at least $5,000 during his campaign.

Why does money matter in the 42nd?

There are three Republicans challenging Miller in the primary. McGroarty has raised the most ($6,550), but has nearly $15,000 in debt and only $1500 cash on hand. The others have yet to raise $5000, which would require they file with the FEC.

Citizens are upset and are looking to vote against incumbents, but with three challengers to choose from, who do you vote for against Miller? Dividing the anti-Miller vote three ways won't beat Miller, which is what will happen unless one of the candidates raises enough to do mailers on a regular basis and rise above the other two.

There are about 171,000 registered republicans, so there are probably around 80,000-90,000 households for mailing purposes. A mail piece, just for mailing, would probably cost close to $25,000.

The three challengers need to either start raising lots of money or loaning their campaigns lot of money. Liberatore and McGroarty both own businesses and probably have money to loan their campaigns.

In the 2008 42nd Democratic primary, two candidates filed with the FEC for spending more than $5000. Ron Shepston, who finished third, spent $105,817. Ed Chau, who won the Democratic nomination, spent about $65,000 in the primary and $347, 351 including the General election.

At this point in the 2008 election cycle (2007 end of year filing) both had raised more than the three 2010 Republican challengers. Shepston had raised $24,407.86, had loans of $4131. 98 and had $6080.01 cash on hand. Chau had raised $12,180, loans of $19,000 and had $13,747.85 cash on hand.

State Candidate Fundraising Totals

State candidates were required to file their fundraising reports for the second half of 2009 this week.

60th district Assemblyman Curt Hagman filed reports for two committees. Together he raised $133, 834.96 and spent $109,101.64. One committee has no cash on hand. The other has $29,631.45 on hand.

61st Assemblywoman Norma Torres raised $146,948.89 and spent $109,586.51. She has $154,698.43 on hand.

32nd State Senator Gloria Negrete McLeod has two committees. Together she raised $61,221.00 and spent 8761.45. Combined she has $990,880.72 on hand.

42nd Congressional Candidate David Su speaks at Chino Hills Council

David Su, who recently spoke at the Diamond Bar city council meeting, spoke during the public comments portion of the city of Chino Hills council meeting (speaks at 29 minutes) last week. However, this time when he started talking politics the city attorney informed him he could not make political announcements during public comments.

Conservative Party Pledge signed by McGroarty

As we posted yesterday, 42nd Congressional candidate Lee McGroarty has announced the endorsement of the Conservative Party. He is running for the nomination against Congressman Gary Miller, Philip Liberatore and David Su. I thought I would post the entire pledge that McGroarty had to sign in order to receive the endorsement.

Conservative Party (California) PledgeFor Local, State and Federal Elected Office

I (Candidate) hereby agree to adhere to the following stipulations in order to gain the endorsement of and/or support from the Conservative Party (California), hereinafter referred to as PARTY.

As a Candidate for elected Office, I pledge to:

1. Hold any combination of elected Federal offices for a maximum of 18 years, consecutive or otherwise, but not exceeding three (3) terms (18 years) in the U.S. Senate and four (4) terms (8 years) for the U.S. House after which I will resign and not seek re-election to those offices.

2. Agree to limit my maximum term in office to 20 years for any combination of local, state or federal elected offices.

3. Make my legislative schedule public at all times via the internet and provide explanation of any missed votes.

4. Report to my constituency and the PARTY monthly on the progress of my legislative initiatives and the reasons for all my votes or rulings.

5. Accept funds or contributions only from individual US citizens and PAC’s or corporations or groups specifically approved by the PARTY. I will immediately disclose all contributions/donations to my PAC for review by the PARTYwithin 48 hours of receipt. If deemed not acceptable, all such funds will be returned to the contributors with explanation. I further pledge to post all donations on my website.

6. Be fully transparent in disclosing all my activities concerning Gerrymandering.

7. Disclose immediately when any of my personal investments could benefit from any pending legislation on which I will vote and outline any potential conflicts of interest.

8. Not develop or support any legislation that contains language on spending for budget items unrelated to that specific Bill (“Riders”).

9. Not support or submit any off-budget Earmarks. I further pledge to publically expose all Earmarks and those Legislators who submit them.

10. Promote and support fiscal responsibility for Federal and State governments, a Federal and State Balanced Budget Amendment and a Presidential Line Item Veto.

11. Consistently vote to defund, or vote against appropriating any money for, any federal program or activity not specifically authorized by an enumerated power in the United States Constitution. I further pledge to provide the specific constitutionally enumerated power for any federal program or spending activity for which I do vote to enact.

12. Have Town Hall meetings as often as practical but not less than once a Calendar quarter (3 months) and/or Monthly Webinars.

13. Be evaluated for adhering to and supporting the PARTY Platform. A Report Card will be published based on overall voting record, attendance and voting frequency and missed votes.

14. Resign if the preponderance of public evidence indicates that I have committed sexual misconduct or promiscuity or adultery or repeated abuse of illicit drugs or
alcohol. I further pledge to resign immediately if I am formally indicted for any felony.

As a signatory to this Pledge I understand that failure to comply with the provisions defined herein may result in the loss of PARTY endorsements and financial support.
Signed
(Candidate)____________________________ Date________

Conservative Party Endorses in 42nd Republican Party Primary?

42nd Republican Congressional candidate Lee McGroarty has announced the endorsement of the Conservative Party. This is an puzzling move for McGroarty who is running in the Republican Party primary against Congressman Gary Miller, Phil Liberatore and David Su.

The home page for the California Conservative Party, which has a link to the McGroarty for Congress website, states, "The time has come for true Conservatives and like-minded Independents to secede from their respective parties and join the Conservative Party of the United States."

The party pamphlet states on page 2, "It is the belief of the Conservative Party that true conservative representation can be provided only by establishment of a new national party. Present affiliation within any political party that leads to a significant compromise of values should be impetus for a citizen to search for a new organization and leadership; the Conservative Party!"

Line 13 of the candidate pledge, which must be signed "in order to gain endorsement," states McGroarty will, "Be evaluated for adhering to and supporting the PARTY Platform. A Report Card will be published based on overall voting record, attendance and voting frequency and missed votes."

Line 5 of the candidate pledge states the candidate will, "Accept funds or contributions only from individual US citizens and PAC’s or corporations or groups specifically approved by the PARTY. I will immediately disclose all contributions/donations to my PAC for review by the PARTY within 48 hours of receipt. If deemed not acceptable, all such funds will be returned to the contributors with explanation. I further pledge to post all donations on my website (I noticed McGroarty currently doesn't post donations received on his website.)

So does Lee McGroarty believe that "true conservative representation" cannot be found in the Republican party? Why is McGroarty giving final review of his donations to a political party he is not a member of? Does McGroarty plan on leaving the Republican Party if elected to Congress in order to comply with the platform?

I think these are questions his three opponents should ask.

Most Read Stories: Week of Jan. 25-31

1. More on Liberatore Jumping into 42nd Race
2. Daily Bulletin forgets about Phil Liberatore, David Su and Michael Bryant?
3. Lee McGroarty, Gary Miller announce Fundraising totals
4. Liberatore Uses Book Endorsements for Campaign?
5. Assemblyman Curt Hagman Named Assistant Republican Leader

Update: Phil Liberatore Uses Book Endorsements for Campaign?

As of this morning, the Philip Liberatore for Congress web site has removed the two endorsements we mentioned in Friday's post, Liberatore Uses Book Endorsements for Campaign?

In it we mentioned that Liberatore was using two quotes supporting his book as campaign endorsement quotes. One was from Warren Duffy, minus references about God and the book. The other was from Jack Hayford and was taken word for word from the book endorsement.

These quotes were obviously about the book and it is hard to believe they were accidentally put on his campaign website. Especially when the Duffy quote was changed to omit God and the phrase, "read this book," from a sentence. Maybe he just thought no one would notice.

Most Read Stories of January

1. Daily Bulletin forgets about Phil Liberatore, David Su and Michael Bryant?
2. More on Liberatore Jumping into 42nd Race
3. Signatures In-Lieu begins TODAY
4. Liberatore enters 42nd Race
5. Local State and Federal Race Update