In September 0f 2008 Democrat Ed Chau, who was challenging Rep. Gary Miller in the General Election, released a poll. The campaign said, "Ed Chau leads Gary Miller by 44% to 38% with 18% of the voters undecided."
On Election Day, Miller received 60.2% and Chau received 39.8%. So in a Democratic year Miller received 4% of Chau's supporters from the poll and all of the undecideds. Unlikely. It is more likely that the poll was inaccurate.
Showing posts with label Ed Chau. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ed Chau. Show all posts
Monday, June 7, 2010
Saturday, February 6, 2010
Orange County Register: Running for Congress costs a million
Dena Bunis with the Orange County Register wrote an interesting article stating that the chances of defeating an incumbent if you can't raise at least a million dollars.
Dena writes, "The Center for Responsive Politics, which is the best in the business in tracking political money, found that in the 2008 election the odds were 302 to one that someone who spent less than $1 million was able to knock off an incumbent.
In the 2004 House races, not one incumbent was defeated by a challenger who had raised less than $1 million."
As we wrote last week 42nd candidates Rep. Gary Miller and Lee McGroarty filed their fundraising reports with the FEC. Gary Miller raised $58,394 in the 4th quarter of 2009. He spent $18,695 and has $950,191.76 cash on hand. He has a debt of $94.10.
Lee McGroarty raised $1,450 in the 4th quarter of 2009. He spent $7,499.91 and has $1550.09 cash on hand. He has a debt of $14,599.15. McGroarty raised a total of $6,550.00 for 2009.
Phil Liberatore officially formed a committee with the FEC last week, which means he expects to spend or raise at least $5,000 during his campaign.
Why does money matter in the 42nd?
There are three Republicans challenging Miller in the primary. McGroarty has raised the most ($6,550), but has nearly $15,000 in debt and only $1500 cash on hand. The others have yet to raise $5000, which would require they file with the FEC.
Citizens are upset and are looking to vote against incumbents, but with three challengers to choose from, who do you vote for against Miller? Dividing the anti-Miller vote three ways won't beat Miller, which is what will happen unless one of the candidates raises enough to do mailers on a regular basis and rise above the other two.
There are about 171,000 registered republicans, so there are probably around 80,000-90,000 households for mailing purposes. A mail piece, just for mailing, would probably cost close to $25,000.
The three challengers need to either start raising lots of money or loaning their campaigns lot of money. Liberatore and McGroarty both own businesses and probably have money to loan their campaigns.
In the 2008 42nd Democratic primary, two candidates filed with the FEC for spending more than $5000. Ron Shepston, who finished third, spent $105,817. Ed Chau, who won the Democratic nomination, spent about $65,000 in the primary and $347, 351 including the General election.
At this point in the 2008 election cycle (2007 end of year filing) both had raised more than the three 2010 Republican challengers. Shepston had raised $24,407.86, had loans of $4131. 98 and had $6080.01 cash on hand. Chau had raised $12,180, loans of $19,000 and had $13,747.85 cash on hand.
Dena writes, "The Center for Responsive Politics, which is the best in the business in tracking political money, found that in the 2008 election the odds were 302 to one that someone who spent less than $1 million was able to knock off an incumbent.
In the 2004 House races, not one incumbent was defeated by a challenger who had raised less than $1 million."
As we wrote last week 42nd candidates Rep. Gary Miller and Lee McGroarty filed their fundraising reports with the FEC. Gary Miller raised $58,394 in the 4th quarter of 2009. He spent $18,695 and has $950,191.76 cash on hand. He has a debt of $94.10.
Lee McGroarty raised $1,450 in the 4th quarter of 2009. He spent $7,499.91 and has $1550.09 cash on hand. He has a debt of $14,599.15. McGroarty raised a total of $6,550.00 for 2009.
Phil Liberatore officially formed a committee with the FEC last week, which means he expects to spend or raise at least $5,000 during his campaign.
Why does money matter in the 42nd?
There are three Republicans challenging Miller in the primary. McGroarty has raised the most ($6,550), but has nearly $15,000 in debt and only $1500 cash on hand. The others have yet to raise $5000, which would require they file with the FEC.
Citizens are upset and are looking to vote against incumbents, but with three challengers to choose from, who do you vote for against Miller? Dividing the anti-Miller vote three ways won't beat Miller, which is what will happen unless one of the candidates raises enough to do mailers on a regular basis and rise above the other two.
There are about 171,000 registered republicans, so there are probably around 80,000-90,000 households for mailing purposes. A mail piece, just for mailing, would probably cost close to $25,000.
The three challengers need to either start raising lots of money or loaning their campaigns lot of money. Liberatore and McGroarty both own businesses and probably have money to loan their campaigns.
In the 2008 42nd Democratic primary, two candidates filed with the FEC for spending more than $5000. Ron Shepston, who finished third, spent $105,817. Ed Chau, who won the Democratic nomination, spent about $65,000 in the primary and $347, 351 including the General election.
At this point in the 2008 election cycle (2007 end of year filing) both had raised more than the three 2010 Republican challengers. Shepston had raised $24,407.86, had loans of $4131. 98 and had $6080.01 cash on hand. Chau had raised $12,180, loans of $19,000 and had $13,747.85 cash on hand.
Thursday, December 17, 2009
Local State and Federal Race Update
The campaign filing season will kick off in less than three weeks with signatures-in-lieu. Nothing has changed from my previous state and federal updates. More details are in the previous updates but I will recap.
State
Assembly Members Curt Hagman and Norma Torres have not yet drawn challengers that have filed intent with the state.
Senator Gloria Negrete McLeod has also not yet drawn a challenger.
Federal
Rep. Gary Miller and Businessman Lee McGroarty will be facing off in the 42nd Republican primary.
Michael Williamson is running for the Democratic nomination. Ron Shepston has not decided on trying again. Ed Chau will not be seeking the nomination and closed his FEC committee.
State
Assembly Members Curt Hagman and Norma Torres have not yet drawn challengers that have filed intent with the state.
Senator Gloria Negrete McLeod has also not yet drawn a challenger.
Federal
Rep. Gary Miller and Businessman Lee McGroarty will be facing off in the 42nd Republican primary.
Michael Williamson is running for the Democratic nomination. Ron Shepston has not decided on trying again. Ed Chau will not be seeking the nomination and closed his FEC committee.
Monday, November 16, 2009
Local Federal Race Update
Since I did a state update earlier I thought a Federal update would be appropriate.
So far there appears to be at least three candidates in the race for the 42nd Congressional race.
Republican Primary
Congressman Gary Miller and Lee McGroarty have both filed with the FEC to seek the Republican nomination.
Democratic Primary
2008 Democratic primary second place finisher Michael Williamson appears to be the only candidate so far to enter the race for the Democratic nomination.
2008 Democratic primary third place finisher Ron Shepston may seek a rematch. His campaign renewed the web site's domain for one year this past April, but there have been no updates to the site since June 2008. One deterrent may be that Shepston still has $45,544 in debt from his 2008 race.
2008 Democratic nominee Ed Chau, who was recently reelected to the Montebello USD school board, terminated his committee with the FEC in October, so he will not be running again.
Candidate filing begins with signatures-in-lieu of filing fees forms on January 1. Although County Registrar of Voters offices will not be open until January 4. The deadline to file nomination papers is March 12.
So far there appears to be at least three candidates in the race for the 42nd Congressional race.
Republican Primary
Congressman Gary Miller and Lee McGroarty have both filed with the FEC to seek the Republican nomination.
Democratic Primary
2008 Democratic primary second place finisher Michael Williamson appears to be the only candidate so far to enter the race for the Democratic nomination.
2008 Democratic primary third place finisher Ron Shepston may seek a rematch. His campaign renewed the web site's domain for one year this past April, but there have been no updates to the site since June 2008. One deterrent may be that Shepston still has $45,544 in debt from his 2008 race.
2008 Democratic nominee Ed Chau, who was recently reelected to the Montebello USD school board, terminated his committee with the FEC in October, so he will not be running again.
Candidate filing begins with signatures-in-lieu of filing fees forms on January 1. Although County Registrar of Voters offices will not be open until January 4. The deadline to file nomination papers is March 12.
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